Some search results show Amazon displaying Incerto by Nassim Nicholas Taleb as a six-book series.

search results for 'incerto 6 book' in DuckDuckGo: the top two results are from Amazon and describe Incerto as a '6 book series'

However, following the links indicates that Incerto is now a five-book series. I believe I have seen the title of the additional book in the past, but I cannot recall it, and the Wayback Machine does not seem to know.

What is the title of the missing book in the series?

  • 2
    There are three kinds of people, those who can count, and those who can't. I suspect that the blurbs for the "six-book series" were written by the third kind.
    – Peter Shor
    Mar 21 at 17:48

While part of me likes to think that it is in the very nature of a philosophical essay on uncertainty to have an indeterminate number of parts, I suspect that the more prosaic answer is that he was two series of essays published; the five-part Incerto series and the, so far, single volume 'Technical Incerto' series.

I suspect that this has caused Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto Vol. 1). STEM Academic Press. 2020. ISBN 978-1-5445-0805-4 to be counted, by some, as part of the Incerto series.


It seems that "6 book series" in the screenshot was a typo in the title element[1] (and ultimately the database from which the web page was generated): when you enter the first non-ad link from the screenshot into a browser, it now says "5 book series". The series is identified there as consisting of the following books:

  1. Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (2001),
  2. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Second Edition) (fist edition 2007, second edition 2010),
  3. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (2010; second edition 2016),
  4. The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms (2012),
  5. Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life (2018).

Penguin Random House has a page for the Incerto series also lists just these five titles and an Incerto five-book bundle from 2021.

Box sets published before 2018 obviously contain only the first four books, see for example Incerto: Fooled by Randomness, the Black Swan, the Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile on Amazon.co.uk, Incerto Box Set: Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) and Die wichtigsten Werke des großen Zufallsforschers erstmals gemeinsam im Schuber: Der Schwarze Schwan - Antifragilität - Narren des Zufalls - Kleines Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen (German translation from 2018 that does not yet contain a translation of the fifth volume). The French edition Incerto: Le Hasard Sauvage / Le Cygne Noir Suivi de Force Et Fragilite / Le Lit de Procuste / Antifragile / Jouer Sa Peau from 2020 also contains just five books, not six.

Wikipedia also lists five books for the Incerto series. Below it is the heading Technical Incerto, which contains just one book published by a different publisher than the Incerto series:

  • Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications, STEM Academic Press, 2020.

The Amazon.com page for this book says that this book is "the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles". This indicates that this series will be aimed at an academic audience, whereas the Incerto series published by Penguin Random House is aimed at the general public. The screenshot in the question does not list Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails as part of the Penguin Random House Incerto series.

[1] The title element in HTML is the element that contains the text that is displayed in a browser's title bar (in browsers that still have one), the tab in which the page is displayed (hover the mouse pointer over the tab to see the full title), the bookmark (if you bookmark the page in your browser) and typically also in search results.

  • If it is important to understanding the answer could you include an explanation of what 'title element' is and why it is formatted as you have? Also can you clarify how the typo gets from the title element to the database from which the title element was generated? I'm sure it makes perfect sense if you know what is being spoken of, but from my standpoint it sounds life a typo propagating backwards in time!
    – Spagirl
    Sep 7 at 14:34
  • @Spagirl I have added a link to a page that explains the title element. How the typo got into the database is anybody's guess (a type by an employee, most likely). Since online stores rely on databases, that must be where it was stored and from which it got into the web page. (Not from the web page into the database.)
    – Tsundoku
    Sep 7 at 14:50

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